Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.065853 0.075640 0.086709 0.100220 0.116355 0.135114 0.158731
2025-11-23 0.052432 0.064630 0.079673 0.099816 0.126437 0.160914 0.209779
2025-11-30 0.043772 0.057356 0.075429 0.101749 0.139988 0.194964 0.282756
2025-12-07 0.036932 0.051095 0.071274 0.103035 0.153544 0.234043 0.379364
2025-12-14 0.030659 0.044453 0.065316 0.100523 0.161371 0.268335 0.486368
2025-12-21 0.024571 0.036998 0.056735 0.092031 0.157526 0.283022 0.568851
2025-12-28 0.021386 0.033509 0.053785 0.092398 0.169929 0.333854 0.759864
2026-01-04 0.019121 0.031128 0.052250 0.095066 0.188228 0.406687 1.063126
2026-01-11 0.016991 0.028617 0.050012 0.095930 0.203650 0.482848 1.454870
2026-01-18 0.015172 0.026358 0.047820 0.096422 0.218994 0.569862 1.993854
2026-01-25 0.013357 0.023816 0.044605 0.093903 0.226389 0.641290 2.589002
2026-02-01 0.011694 0.021318 0.041034 0.089698 0.228054 0.698250 3.233686
2026-02-08 0.010649 0.019929 0.039640 0.090718 0.246406 0.833553 4.646328
2026-02-15 0.009697 0.018590 0.038117 0.091077 0.263624 0.984860 6.677447
2026-02-22 0.008989 0.017661 0.037366 0.093412 0.289472 1.207522 10.329481
2026-03-01 0.008327 0.016732 0.036446 0.095077 0.314642 1.465418 16.091136
2026-03-08 0.007571 0.015486 0.034521 0.093200 0.325568 1.665371 22.969246
2026-03-15 0.006659 0.013764 0.031109 0.085740 0.309557 1.679120 26.923815
2026-03-22 0.006202 0.013052 0.030212 0.086324 0.330429 1.994203 42.811795
2026-03-29 0.005873 0.012602 0.029934 0.088989 0.363753 2.485999 77.491713
2026-04-05 0.005514 0.012031 0.029226 0.089959 0.390007 2.992324 137.019990
2026-04-12 0.005179 0.011475 0.028467 0.090557 0.415526 3.579011 251.485852
2026-04-19 0.004792 0.010743 0.027078 0.088334 0.423586 4.002840 411.825196